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10 GDP growth, and how each regional central bank is going to deal with the further rate cuts that seem very likely to continue into the second quarter of 2009. Regional central banks all look to have plenty of room to still move lower on base rates, and as such we may see a period of Usd buying as the market adjusts to what is perceived to be impending cuts from the U. ECB, Australia, maybe Canada, and even more to come from Japan in rate cuts or market intervention to sell the Jpy. If it is perceived that the Fed is done, that the new government will be investing heavily in growth, and that global demand for Usd based commodities will reduce, then we may need to accept that however smelly the long-term dollar outlook is, and whatever the size and weight of American debt, it may be a case of the market buying the currency that is trusted to be supported and bailed out, at any forward cost. As the week progresses we will be looking at hedging the Usd with the weakest and strongest pairs against the greenback. Friday, and as such we will be looking for a test of support at around 91.
00 that allows the pair to be bought. The euro looks as though it may now come under pressure from the market playing catch-up on valuations now that the economic picture, and ECB member jawboning, points to a cut in rates next week that may not actually be the last as intimated by Jean Claude Trichet recently. We will be watching the short side of the euro. The strongest looking Usd based pair seems by far and away to be the aussie, and with the RBA not meeting again until February this pair may catch bids on the market looking at gold possibly being bought as a hedge against global growth reductions, and deflationary issues.
The aussie looks as though it needs a pullback to support that may set it up for a test of 0. This period of trade is historically very good for forex trading, it tends to offer plenty in the way of short-term and longer-term opportunities, but the unique situation of the market reaction to the Credit Crisis hangover just needs to be respected in that intra-day volatility may still have a part to play in how the market gets to its valuation goals. We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts.
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